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14:24:48tromp:quiz: how long does it take on avg for a newly announced tx to find its way into a block? A: 5min B: 15min C: neither
14:30:24justanotheruser:tromp: its probably not *exactly* either of thtose values
14:30:49Eliel:if you insist on putting my answer with the quiz parameters, then C. But look here for the real answer https://blockchain.info/charts/avg-confirmation-time?showDataPoints=false×pan=all&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0&address=
14:31:15justanotheruser:Eliel: that implies that blockchain.info has some way of knowing exactly when a tx was announced
14:31:32justanotheruser:I suppose that if it is working it probably isn't *that* far off
14:31:38tromp:http://gendal.wordpress.com/2014/10/26/a-simple-explanation-of-bitcoin-sidechains/ says 5 min, which struck me as way off
14:31:41Eliel:justanotheruser: it's close enough
14:32:13justanotheruser:tromp: well thats just silly
14:33:01justanotheruser:ignoring not being confirmed into a block and no difficulty changes, it is 10 min on average
14:34:01Eliel:justanotheruser: the average in practise seems to have been hovering between 6 and 8 minutes lately.
14:34:19justanotheruser:Eliel: what has the average block time been hovering at?
14:35:02Eliel:no graph of that, unfortunately.
14:35:28justanotheruser:doesn't it make senses that the avg conf time should be 10 minutes though?
14:35:33tromp:its on avg X/2 min till the next solved block, at which point miners include the new tx, and then another X to solve that block
14:35:36justanotheruser:maybe they count tx they haven't seen yet as 0min
14:35:38tromp:where X is presumed to be 10min
14:35:56justanotheruser:tromp: no, it is 10min on average until the next block is solved
14:36:12tromp:ah, good point
14:36:43tromp:so, then the answer is 20min?
14:37:31justanotheruser:It should be 10min I think. That seems to be a bit of a paradox though
14:38:25justanotheruser:At every moment you are 10min from the next block on average, however, blocks on average are 10min apart and not all tx for the next block come 0min after the last black
14:39:07justanotheruser:s/paradox/confusing problem for me/
14:47:36dgenr8:justanotheruser: they don't all have to take 10 min to make that the average; often times they wait longer.
14:47:43dgenr8:not only is the exponential ditribution memoryless, it is the unique distribution with this property
14:57:48justanotheruser:dgenr8: I understand it is an average, I still don't understand what the average confirm time is
14:59:19justanotheruser:On one hand, the the block time is 10 minutes on average and tx generation is probably approximately a uniform distribution, therefore there should be an approximately equal number of transactions each minute that a block isn't found meaning an average of 5 minutes.
14:59:46justanotheruser:However, when I generate a transaction, it is 10 minutes until the next block arrives on average, not 5 minutes.
15:01:20justanotheruser:There's clearly something I'm missing.
15:02:04helo:negativity bias?
15:02:52dgenr8:tx generation is a poisson process itself (totally different from tx propagation which I find to be close to lognormal)
15:03:36justanotheruser:dgenr8: generation? It is probably a normal process o_O
15:04:06helo:or maybe miners don't continuously recreate their blocks while searching for a solution, so most transactions broadcast during the mining of block X make it into block X+1
15:04:23justanotheruser:helo: I am working on the assumption that they do
15:04:32justanotheruser:maybe I should ask in #math
15:05:08dgenr8:how could average time to inclusion be any different from average time to next block? nobody knows whether you xmitted a tx, or just said "now!"
15:06:23justanotheruser:dgenr8: the fact that all the transactions for block 10000001 aren't broadcasted at the same time as block 10000000 is proof that the average time to inclusion is smaller than the average time to next block
15:07:57kanzure:huh? "inclusion" means what here
15:08:15dgenr8:justanotheruser: that assumes block 1 comes exactly 10 min after block 0
15:08:17justanotheruser:kanzure: getting the first confirmation
15:08:24justanotheruser:dgenr8: does it?
15:08:54justanotheruser:I don't see how it does
15:09:16dgenr8:you're dividing by 10 to get the average
15:09:23justanotheruser:am I?
15:09:35justanotheruser:I'm not trying to find an average.
15:09:40justanotheruser:At least right now
15:11:21dgenr8:sorry, you're dividing by n, expecting to get 10, but that does not mean they all have to be 10
15:11:43justanotheruser:I don't see what part of my statement assumes all blocks are 10 minutes
15:11:48dgenr8:the trial is repeated many times
15:12:59justanotheruser:the trial is repeated many times and every time, the difference in time between the blocks should be greater than the time the average tx in that block took to get confirmed because not all tx in block 1 were made immediatly as block 0 was broadcasted.
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15:20:20dgenr8:that is true, the average confirm time for a tx in a block is inter-block-time / 2. but the global average time to inclusion is 10 min (also assumes constant hash power, not just constant difficulty)
15:21:08justanotheruser:dgenr8: How do you define global average time?
15:22:35dgenr8:expected time from any point until next block (which doesn't depend on whether I pressed some send button or not)
15:23:26justanotheruser:dgenr8: That doesn't make sense to me. How can the average tx take 5 minutes to get into a block, while a tx I make will take 10 minutes on average
15:26:11justanotheruser:Ignoring "I" make
15:26:49justanotheruser:How can the average tx take 5 minutes when any tx I select should have been 10 minutes from confirmation on average
15:28:53dgenr8:the first is an average over the txes in just 1 block. Even that is 10 min if you pick the block randomly (and subject to the other assumptions we are making)
15:30:47dgenr8:you can't say "the average takes 5 min". You can say the average inside a block is inter-block-time / 2
15:33:08justanotheruser:the average over the txes in just 1 block should be less than the difference in the blocks
15:35:18tromp:can we assume that txs in block x were announced between blocks x-2 and x-1?
15:36:52kanzure:no
15:37:36wumpus:tromp: not in bitcoin, transaction can linger in the mempool for ages until they're included in a block
15:39:07justanotheruser:wumpus: for this problem we are assuming all tx get confirmed in the next block
15:39:37tromp:ok. but if we do assume that, then on avg, from tx announcement to 1st confirm is twice avg block interval, right?
15:40:36justanotheruser:tromp: maybe, but on average at any moment of time the next block should be 10 minutes away
15:41:42tromp:yes. just like when flipping coins forever, you always expect 2 flips to the next head
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21:36:37kanzure:nsh: http://gnusha.org/bitcoin-wizards/
21:36:50kanzure:i also have earlier logs but haven't split them up or uploaded them
21:37:02kanzure:and also there's no linkable lines. so in conclusion this solves exactly none of your requirements.
21:37:09nsh:* nsh nods
21:37:17nsh:i'll have another go at cleaning up sbp's script for loggy
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